Overview of 2009, First month of 2010 Market Update for Eagle Rock

It seems like I’m always saying that here at last is the straight story on the real estate market, but it’s always true! Last year, 2009, there were 121 sales in Eagle Rock, zip code 90041. Here’s the interesting part: 60% of the sales were “distress sales,” that is, either short sales or bank-owned properties. Now, in 2010, we had 9 sales in the first month and 55% of those were short sales or REOs (bank-owned). While the foreclosures were scattered out fairly evenly over the last year, I noticed that the short sales that actually closed escrow tended to happen later in the year, and in January, 5 of the 6 distress sales were short sales. This is in line with the government’s efforts to help people avoid foreclosure, modify their loans and then approve a short sale if the loan modification didn’t work out.
What you can’t tell from the Multiple Listing Service is that a lot of the “normal” sales were under duress as well. I know personally of several divorce sales and a few properties that had to be sold quickly before the owners were unable to make any more payments due to job losses or failed businesses.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In other words, very few people who didn’t have to sell did sell. But look at the graph and table for the year from 12/08 through 12/09: it’s obvious that we did reach a bottom in the first quarter.  I think the dip in November was not another bottom, just an example of my point about distress sales. Notice on the table how few properties were selling at the end of the year–because of holidays, because of perception of the market. If you take the dip in November out, the market was steadily higher than earlier in the year. And note that the year over year prices were up, which is much more meaningful than the dramatic 1-month changes around November.

 

What’s going to happen this year? My crystal ball is still on backorder, but so far this year I have talked to a lot of people who want to sell and many who want to buy. From the energy I’m feeling, I’d say the first quarter of the year should be very active. In most years past, the first quarter is sluggish with sellers talking a lot about going on the market in the spring, but not getting around to going on the market until May or June. Buyers want to take advantage of the federal tax credit programs with their April 30 deadlines, and more and more sellers are saying they are ready to sell even if they can’t make what they might have in 2007. This promises good things to come.

Tagged as: Eagle Rock real estate, Foreclosures, real estate, short sales, Tracy King